Predictions for Tesla Full Self Driving

Clickbait

In this article I'm going to explain why I believe that Tesla will allow all of their vehicle owners to use Full Self Driving, even if they haven't purchased the package, and why you might still want to do so even if it costs $100,000.

I'm also going to talk about the media circus surrounding the inevitable deaths.

Preamble

Tesla has been developing autonomous vehicle software for a while now, and their latest version "FSD limited beta" has just been released to a few selected individuals.

This release marks the first time members of the public can activate a vehicle with 'feature complete' self driving 'assistance'.

What this means in short, is that under ideal circumstances your car can drive you from point A to point B by itself without any human assistance, regardless of where those points are.

For clarity, the way Tesla are developing their 'full self driving' software is a little different from how some might imagine, and how other companies have tackled the problem. Tesla, (similar to Open Pilot), are releasing their software piecemeal, allowing users to use the partially functional software, as and when its developed. This FSD preview continues the theme, however now all features are available, albeit with the quality of the features still very limited.

E.g., whilst theoretically the car can drive itself, it frequently will find problems and will make many mistakes. Therefore, at least for now, the car driver is still required to pay attention at all times, and be prepared to take over control at a moments notice.

Once the cars are able to drive by themselves safer than a human, (and once regulators agree this is the case and allow it), Elon's plan is to create a network of fully autonomous robo-taxis, using cars from the currently deployed (purchased by private individuals) fleet of Teslas on the road. 

This would require the owners of the vehicles to voluntarily sign up their vehicles to join the fleet. Due to the amount of money that a robo-taxi can make, Elon believes this will make the self-driving software worth at least $100,000 dollars per car.

This being the case the cost to purchase the full self driving option has been steadily increasing over time, recently going up to $10,000. Elon has stated that purchasers of Tesla vehicles are therefore purchasing 'increasing assets', or in other words, your Tesla will be worth more in the future than what you paid for it. He has hinted that he believes the package will be worth $100,000 when its complete.


Free FSD for non FSD owners

To explain why Tesla will allow all of their drivers to use FSD we have to think about their future business model. Elon clearly believes that most of the companies revenue in the future will come from RoboTaxi fairs. Every car on their RoboTaxi network is a money printing machine, for Tesla.

Therefore, if you haven't purchased the package, and you never do, no need to fear, you will still get to use FSD in your Tesla. Lets think it through. 

  • Preventing non-FSD owners from joining the network is turning down free money (for Tesla, there is no upfront cost to them to allow you to join their network with your car).
  • Tesla will have to pay Tesla owners some of the revenue from each journey as otherwise no-one would sign up. (You would need at least enough to cover the wear and tear on the car, and then a bit more).
  • Someone who is on the network can just 'hail' their own car.
  • Owners on the network will be able to choose when their car is available for use on the network.
  • Non-FSD owners can therefore decide to join the network, and only make it available when they want to use their car, at which point they 'hail' it.
  • Each time they do they will have to pay a per-mile usage fee which goes to Tesla, like any other RoboTaxi customer. However at Elon's estimated $1 per mile, if you don't drive that much and you don't use it on every journey, that cost is pretty low, and a portion of that $1/mile is coming straight back into your pocket.
  • Tesla will figure this out in advance and allow non-FSD owners to use FSD on a per-mile basis discounted from what you pay as a 3rd party rider.

So why buy FSD now?

When Elon talks about 'appreciating assets', he's clearly only referring to FSD enabled vehicles, or mostly. Tesla themselves are planning to continue to lower the cost of their vehicles, Elon has stated this multiple times. Therefore, on a purely hardware basis, a vehicle purchased a few years ago cannot possibly be worth more in the future as a potential buyer could just buy a new Tesla cheaper than the old vehicle cost new.

Tesla will have to reward people who paid in advance for FSD, and they way they will do that is giving them a much more generous portion of the RoboTaxi revenue. Elon believes that each car could earn $100,000 per year in revenue, which probably translates to around $30000 in profit (per year, if they car is available full time on the network). 

Therefore if you have purchased FSD, you're car is going to become a money printing machine, up to $30k per year. THATS why its an appreciating asset, as its able to generate so much money it will be worth much more than you paid for it.

Fallout

There will be people who will be very unhappy that they paid so much for FSD and non-payers are able to use it for so little. However they (will) have the wrong attitude. They should put their car on the network full time and start earning the money they paid back and more. For early adopters they should be able to make their FSD payment back in a few months at most.

But what about drivers who don't want strangers in their car?

Put the car on the network FULL TIME. Buy another Tesla (without FSD) for yourself and pay the per mile usage charge. Let your FSD car earn you money. 

Caveats

Its possible your car will get written off before the FSD RoboTaxi network comes online, or before its been able to repay the FSD cost, or the car will be so worn out by then that its not in a fit state to be a taxi. In any of these cases you've probably just lost your FSD money. 

This is probably why its so cheap now. You should try to enjoy the features it currently has and accept that maybe you wont ever make a killing on the RoboTaxi network.

Bigger issues (deaths)

FSD will be (on average) safer than humans, much safer. The total number of fatalities, and property damage, and injuries, will be significantly lower than cars driven by humans.

However, FSD will also kill some people. Probably in stupid ways that a human driver would never have done.  The media will lose its shit over this.

Your uncle and friend down the pub and that guy from work will chew your ears off about how terrible FSD is, and it will be near impossible to convince them otherwise because humans are irrational. 

Anyway, I had all these thoughts in my head that I wanted to document before they happened so everyone can congratulate me in the future for my prescience, but it turned out more difficult to write in an entertaining way so thanks for getting this far through this dry article. Please leave me a comment below.

Thanks

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